My 2022 Governor Predictions

Individual Candidates Matter. Mostly.

How I characterize each race:

"Solid" states are definitely Dem or Rep by 15 or more percentage points (like CA or TN)
"Likely" states are decided by 5 to 15 points (like CO or GA)
"Lean" states are decided by 1 to 5 points (like MI)
"Tilt" states are decided by less than 1 point (like AZ or KS)

Although Republicans will retain the majority of governorships, most Americans will be governed by Democrats

A brief explanation of some (perhaps surprising) states

Arizona - Tilt R

Despite Kari Lake's extremism, she excites both her base and unhappy swing voters. Katie Hobbs has won statewide elections before, but in a state Biden only won by 0.3%, in this environment, the GOP can hold the governorship. It won't be easy, and Arizona's changing demographics and Mark Kelly's expected strong performance on the Senate level makes this race so close. I think Lake will narrowly win, but this is my most uncomfortable governor prediction. National Democrats made democracy their final message, which will have a bigger impact on this race than on others, and Hobbs has political experience, and she won on the same ticket where Gov. Doug Ducey (R) obliterated his democratic opponent. I expect Lake's margin of victory to be less than 0.5 points, but if Kelly is exceeding my expectations for him in the Senate race, Hobbs might barely hold on.

Florida - Likely R

Ron DeSantis, where to start. No way he loses this race. He's very well-liked in Florida, and is on track for reelection. DeSantis has become a star in the national GOP: he is often second in hypothetical 2024 GOP primary polling. His response to I think he'll be on the upper end of likely, so an 8-15 point margin of victory. The stronger he does, the better a candidate he is if he runs for president in 2024.

Georgia - Likely R

On paper, this is a rematch of 2018, but it is not necessarily the same. Kemp is now a popular incumbent, whose stance on the 2020 election has made him much more favorable in the eyes of Georgians, and he was already popular. Despite her previous success in this race, Abrams has the problem of being a failed candidate, which makes her less favorable. I don't think there will be a runoff: I expect Kemp to win, and I think he'll win by 5-10 points.

Kansas - Tilt D

Incumbent Gov. Laura Kelly (D) faces off against KS AG Derek Schmidt (R), in a state Jerry Moran (R) will win the Senate race by a safe margin. However, Kelly is popular, and she has used Kansas's overwhelming support for abortion, seen in their August rejection of an effort to ban abortion, to her favor. Kansas's geography makes it crucial for abortion rights, and Schmidt, who's pro-life, must win roughly 20% of pro-choice Kansas voters. Democrats found success in tying Schmidt to former Gov. Sam Brownback, who was one of the most unpopular governors in America. And while Kelly has been able to excite Kansas Democrats, Schmidt has been unable to energize the GOP in a similar manner. These factors lead to a tilt D characterization, and I expect Kelly to win by less 2.5 points.

Maryland - Solid D

Maryland has its own explanation purely because it is a flip. Gov. Larry Hogan (R) is term-limited, which means the seat is for the taking. Hogan is a popular moderate Republican, who won reelection to the governorship in 2018 by 12 points in a state that voted for Clinton by 27 points in 2016 and Biden by 31 points in 2020. Maryland is a blue state, and Wes Moore (D) is the favorite to be its next governor. Had Kelly Schulz, the Hogan-endorsed candidate won the Republican nomination instead of Trump-endorsed Dan Cox, Moore would probably win by a smaller margin. But that didn’t happen, and I expect Moore to beat Cox by well over 15 points, flipping Maryland’s governorship for the Democrats.

Massachusetts - Solid D

Massachusetts is also only here because it will flip. Incumbent Gov. Charlie Baker (R) is similar to Hogan - he won in 2014 by 2 points, already impressive, as Biden won the state in 2020 by 33 points, Clinton won by 27 in 2016, and Obama won by 23 in 2012. But in 2018, on the same ballot that Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) defeated Geoff Diehl (R) by 24, Baker won reelection by 33 points. He is so individually strong that in a Democrat's state in a Democrat's year, he outperformed Diehl by 30 points. Baker, the only Republican who would be favored to win this race, would've won easily, but Donald Trump endorsed Diehl (who lost to Warren in 2018) in the GOP primary. Trump saw Baker as a RINO, which gifted the race to Democrats. Facing a legacy-tainting primary loss, Baker opted not to run. When Maura Healey (D) wins by 25+, she can thank Trump for his unnecessary endorsement.

Michigan - Lean D

Coming Soon!

Nevada - Tilt R

Coming Soon!

New Hampshire - Solid R

Incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is easily the most electable candidate in New Hampshire. Here's what I mean: In 2020, on the same ballot Biden won NH by 7 points, Sununu won reelection to a third term by 32 points. In doing so, not only did he win every county, he also received the most amount of votes in a single election in the history of New Hampshire. While Sununu dominated in 2020, he won in 2018 by 7 points, in a year much better for Democrats than 2020. So in a year in which Democrats are doing worse than both 2020 and 2018 and Sununu remains immensely popular, I think he could win by more than 15 points. I have no doubt in saying Sununu will do better than Maggie Hassan, but I don't think he'll repeat his 32 point win. Speaking of the Senate race, I think he would've won if he ran. Much to the relief of national Democrats, he didn't, so I think he'll win by 14-20 points, a prediction heavily influenced by polls.

New York - Solid D

Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) will win New York's governor's race, so the only question is the margin. A couple of GOP-backed polls showed Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) either ahead or trailing by a lean margin, but I don't buy those polls. Come Tuesday, and I think Hochul is on track for a decisive victory. I predicted Sen. Chuck Schumer will also win by a solid margin, which will help Hochul with him. Finally, in 2010 and 2014, which were much better years for the GOP that 2022 will likely be, Democrats won New York by solid margin. Even if it's a likely Dem result, I expect it to be on the higher end of likely, so I expect a 13-20 point victory for Hochul.

Oklahoma - Likely R

Oklahoma is likely Republican and not Safe Republican, like both its senate elections, because polls show Republican-turned-Democrat Joy Hofmeister (D) in a close race with Gov. Kevin Stitt (R). Hofmeister is a good candidate for Democrats, but she's running in Oklahoma, which means she has an uphill battle, to say the least. Although recent polling shows the race in low single digits, some showing Hofmeister ahead, I don't buy it. I do believe that Stitt will underperform both Sen. James Lankford and Markwayne Mullin, but he's still going to win, given the partisan lean of Oklahoma. I predicted both Senate races as Solid R, but I think Hofmeister will pose a bigger problem, so I expect Stitt to win by 12-17 points. I think the final margin will hover around 15 points, which is the my cutoff for solid and likely states.

Oregon - Lean D

The Spoiler Effect - 2022 is the GOP's best chance in decades to win Oregon because democrat-turned-independent former state legislator Betsy Johnson (I) is running, despite polls showing her near 10%. Tina Kotek (D) is associated with Gov. Kate Brown, one of the most unpopular governors in the US. Kotek is blamed for homelessness and crime. Johnson wins voters with popular democratic stances while distancing herself from issues voters blame democrats for. Johnson is taking enough votes away from Kotek that Christine Drazan (R) has a real chance at winning. Phil Knight supported Johnson but turned to Drazan - this article explains it well. Kotek has tried to make voters think it's a two-horse race (Johnson will not win) because Kotek wins if Johnson is closer to 5% than 15%. I think enough Johnson voters will realize that she can't win and pick Kotek over Drazan. I would expect a 2-6 point margin of victory for Kotek.

Pennsylvania - Likely D

Doug Mastriano is a horrible candidate, and Josh Shapiro is a fantastic one. Shapiro has won two statewide elections to become Pennsylvania's Attorney General in 2016 and 2020. Shapiro outperformed Hillary Clinton and Biden on the corresponding presidential tickets, and won the most votes of any candidate in Pennsylvania history in 2020. Moreover, Shapiro has led Mastriano in every single poll, mostly by 5-15 points, which puts this in the likely blue column.

Texas - Likely R

Texas has been becoming more of a competitive state each cycle, but that trend will pause in 2022. Beto O'Rourke does not have the momentum, popularity, or national environment he had in 2018, and Greg Abbott is popular in Texas. These factors combined tell us that Abbott will likely win by 5-10 points, and expand on Trump's margin of victory in 2020.

Vermont - Solid R

Although Vermont is going blue on the Senate and House levels by big margins, Gov. Phil Scott (R) has one of the best approval ratings in the country and is immensely popular. Scott will easily win his race, even though Rep. Peter Welch (D) will certainly be the next US senator from Vermont. I expect a large margin of victory for Scott, well over 15 points.

Wisconsin - Tilt R

This is a close one. Although incumbent Tony Evers is a good candidate, he is unquestionably vulnerable. Republican Tim Michels should be able to take advantage of a favorable national environment for Republicans, and he will be helped by Ron Johnson being reelected to his Senate seat (at least, in my prediction. If Johnson loses, Michels also loses). Although I think Evers will outperform Mandela Barnes, Wisconsin is the most Republican of the "Blue wall" states, and all these reasons drive my prediction that Michels will win by less than 1 point.